2016 bellwether counties

These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less . Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention) . President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. In fact, a national coalition of election security officials described the general election as "the most secure in American history," per USA TODAY. Found an error on our site? There were 1.3 million voters, or a quarter of all the state's voters, in just eight counties in that stretch. Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. But its not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. These key counties are telling the story of America's shifting (The highest value being again 66.1%). Like Texas, Utah looks like it's receded from the battleground, so we don't include it in our 13 battlegrounds. The US Election Integrity Plan contains further news, analysis, videos and practical guides to getting involved. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. How could 16 out of 17 bellwether counties predict a Trump win - Quora TIP: Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. Will That Last?]. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. "We call them bellwethers because there's some fluke statistic, sometimes they are the right mix of different demographics. Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention), Latest voter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 112,113Democrats: 109,965Republicans: 100,540Libertarian: 3,009. (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. Other counties to watch: Also watch Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre). The website FiveThirtyEight pointed out in 2021 that, in the 2016 election Trump won, opponent Hillary Clinton carried 16 of the 35 counties that had gone for the winner in every election from. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 53%-44% - 2008: McCain 54%-45%. "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Yes, another Hillsborough! Obama won both with 56 percent; if Trump is making them competitive, that could mean Iowa goes his way. While local Republican Party candidates enjoyed a bump in local media coverage for opening a new headquarters last summer, Democrats were facing vastly different circumstances. 2016 winners: Bernie Sanders (Democratic caucus); Ted Cruz (GOP state convention)2012: Obama 51%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Unaffiliated: 128,938Republicans: 111,374Democrats: 109,140Libertarian: 3,388. The exurban county has seen a surge in minority voters in fact, non-Hispanic whites only constitute 62 percent of the vote, and thats made the area more competitive. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way. It's a largely rural area of 40,000 residents that's home to a nuclear power plant, a sprawling US National Guard training facility and islands that the British Royal Navy battled for and lost during the War of 1812. Read about our approach to external linking. The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania | OZY Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! The coalition which includedthe Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Association of State Election Directors also noted that all states with close results had paper records of each vote. Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. Racine County2016 primary winners: Sanders, Cruz, Latest voter registration totals: 113,599No party registration. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised," they concluded. 2023 BBC. We looked at the most recent swing counties and determined how many of the strongest Democrat voting counties in 2008, swung back to the Democrat party in 2020. These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY. The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Much of the rest of the state is rural and ruby red Republican. Recently, though, social media users have shared a meme with statistics that they claim discredits his victory. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. Click here, for more. How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. These former bellwether counties are much whiter and less college-educated than the country as a whole. These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. A Trump win is probably out of the question in a county thats home to Des Moines and the state capitol -- he finished third here in the caucuses behind first-place finisher Rubio and runner-up Cruz -- but he will go a long way toward carrying the state if he can keep it close. 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. 2. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. In other words, we are including more counties that are more likely to vote for the Democrat party. Election night is going to be information overload. our Gitlab account where you can But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. Other counties to watch: Often early results in Michigan will show a close race or Republicans ahead, until the Detroit area votes come in. Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Ron Elving . From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. Twitter Twitter Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. It did go for John Kerry in 2004, though, when Bush won the state, so let's see if Monroe retains its bellwether status beyond two elections or if it was just a cheeseburger in paradise. We organized this by poll-closing time (all in Eastern time for the latest poll-closing times in that state), so you can follow along as the night goes: 1. Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 105,097Republicans: 87,763Democrats: 77,383. So, for our purposes, a swing county would have voted as follows: There are 80 such counties. Weeks after Election Day, there have still been no discoveriesof widespread voter fraud. Bellwether counties: Where in America do voters nail it? Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. Third, it lists the fractionof bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. 2016 Election (1135) We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. In this section we will introduce a new concept: The swing county. Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. Obama won it with 53 percent of the vote while winning statewide by just 75,000 votes in 2012. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. This is a fairly small county, but we couldn't resist the toll of this bellwether. From 1980 through 2016, there were19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it. If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. Watauga has gone for the winner statewide in each of the last three presidential elections and three Senate races since 2008. Bucks has three times the voters than its neighboring county to the north. But both are worth watching. It almost became religious.". For Trump to win, he needs to flip a place like Racine, which went for Obama narrowly. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties - Election Fraud at a Glance All Rights Reserved. Enter Donald Trump. Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. 5. Suggest an improvement, report an issue, The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania . We will only focus on the most recent elections to increase the pool of counties to analyze.). A swing county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. "It wasn't part of his strategy.". Donald Trump is highly unlikely to win here -- Democrats have a big voter registration advantage in this county where Trump owns one of his many homes. ET. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: Allamakee County, Iowa, in 1992 and 2020 [3] Alamosa County, Colorado, in 2016 and 2020 [3] Baldwin County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016 [3] Benzie County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020 [3] Blue Earth County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2004 [3] In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. November 8, 2016 9:29 AM ET. When is Eurovision and how do you get tickets? According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. "These counties, they're not real representations of America," says Mr Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics. BBC Reality Check breaks down the bill for the world's most expensive election, Arriving at a voting station to observe as a poll challenger on 4 November last, she sat down next to two people she didn't know. In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. This county voted with the popular vote each time. The Americans who almost always predict the president With a total turnout. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? Go on, look them up! Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. Contributors wanted "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. Where did all the bellwether counties go? - HotAir Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. In communities . In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. George W. Bush twice won comfortably in Forsyth County, the home of Winston-Salem. Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. If the Republican percentage in 2020 is less than in 2016, it would clearly indicate a change in sentiment away from the Republican party, towards the Democrat party. @ryanmatsumoto1, Donald Trump (1624 posts) Not anymore. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. But its also home to the largest concentration of registered Republicans in the state. Watch Hampton City. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Outstanding. Well, lets consider the percentage gap between the winning and losing party in these counties. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. a county which has voted Republican in 2004, but swung to the Democrat party in 2008 and then back to the Republican party in 2016. Four years later, Caswell is still looking for a second act for its . Along with neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), the two counties include nearly a half-million registered Republicans. If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. List of election bellwether counties in the United States It's New Hampshire's biggest county by population. 6. Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. We further relaxed the constraint by introducing the switch county. Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Especially since Biden received million more votes than Obama did in 2008. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status. Other counties to watch: Almost half of all of Obama's votes in 2012 came from just three places Milwaukee City, Milwaukee County and Dane (Madison, home to the University of Wisconsin). Dont simply gloss over this. (The highest value being 66.1%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 25 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. You can find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Ask our loving God to act in dealing with corruption, restoring justice and integrity in the nation, and prayerfully consider who you should share information with and what your role might be. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. Republicans are bullish that the suburban county will stay in their column this time, in part because of frustration with Washington. Bellwether - Wikipedia The highest percentage being 66.1%. Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). On Dec. 1, formerAttorney General William Barr also told the Associated Pressthe U.S. Justice Department had uncovered no such evidence. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. In 2020, a single. Winnebago County: A large bellwether county in east-central Wisconsin, Mr. Trump won it in 2016, but in 2018 Democrats running for governor and the Senate performed much better. If bellwethers were just a statistical curiosity and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election. 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. Eastern Iowa is often seen as Democratic turf -- the last 4 Democratic presidential nominees have won Scott County. The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. The Trump era made us rethink a lot about politics and elections in America, including the counties that are useful barometers of the national political environment. The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). But demographic change appears to have tipped the county slightly more in Democrats' direction. Racine County, which features a significant Hispanic and African American population, is the only competitive county bordering Milwaukee Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington counties are reliably Republican. While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. It's something Joan Day-Baker, chair of Valencia County's Democratic Party, has witnessed first-hand. For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). Trump gave them hope. From 1980 through 2016, 19 of the nation's more than 3,000 counties voted for the eventual president in every election. Their hopes are real. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. A Changing America Faces A Stark Choice This Election. In fact, of the 19 pivot counties across America to correctly pick the president every time over the past 10 election cycles, only one - Clallam County in Washington state - saw a majority back Joe Biden for president. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. Even combined, they represent only53 votes a fraction of the 538 total electoral votesor the 270 electoral votes required to win the White House. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). First, what are bellwether counties? Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Do you know this baby? Only one of them, Washington state's Clallam County, backed. To get an idea as to whether Clinton could win it, watch Tarrant County. That'sanother reason results of the contests might not have lined up. 25 battleground counties to watch - POLITICO Tampa's Hillsborough County is a top bellwether -- since 1960, no candidate has won Florida . The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. It is also not as educated: Just 22 percent of adults 25 or older have a bachelors degree or higher, which is substantially lower than the 32 percent who have a college degree nationwide. First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. That's 14 in a row. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. That report was issued on Nov. 12. Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. But in 2020, 18 of these 19 bellwether counties voted for former President Donald Trump. A total of 35 counties voted for the winner of each presidential election from 1980 through 2012. For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. In the past, says Mrs Day-Baker, the presence of conservative Democrats and split-ticket voting - choosing a Republican nominee for president but Democratic Party candidates as local representatives, or vice versa - were both commonplace. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. Once-reliably Republican -- and essential to Republicans to help overcome the deficit they face in Las Vegas Clark County -- Washoe voted twice for Bush and then twice for Obama. or even dive into the markdown files yourself to submit improvements. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 55%-43%. Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. Increased political polarization is another reason why fewer counties are consistently indicative of presidential results in recent years. That includes10elections, includingObama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016.