10 January 2018. The groups that were forcibly incorporated into the Ethiopian empire are now citizens of todays Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia.[18] The collective memory of violence[19] that certain groups suffered in this process has remained fresh in a number of cases, owing to the continued perception or experience of central political control and targeted use of coercion.[20], Indirect and direct control and centralization have continued as modes of governance since Imperial Ethiopia ceased to exist in 1974. In August, security forces arrested, beat, and used excessive force against scores of protesters, and allegedly killed over 40 people in eastern Oromia. Fragmented Peacekeeping: Regional Interests Define the African Union Mission in Somalia, The Somalia Conflict: Implications for peacemaking and peacekeeping efforts, Networks of Rebellion: Explaining Insurgent Cohesion and Collapse, From soldiers to politicians: Transforming rebel movements after civil war, La corne de lAfrique, volutions politiques et scuritaires (tome 1), The great Ethiopian land-grab: feudalism, Leninism, neo-liberalism plus a change, Rethinking business and politics in Ethiopia: The role of EFFORT, the Endowment Fund for the Rehabilitation of Tigray, Development as a collective action problem: Addressing the real challenges of African governance, One foot on the ground, one foot in the air: Ethiopias delivery on an ambitious development agenda. 0000009122 00000 n Since the political changes of 2018, Ethiopia has been undergoing what may be its most rapid and drastic change in modern history. These issues suggest that political incentives for mobilizing ethnicity as a resource in struggles for power already exist.[30]. At the same time, however, such outreach also appears to serve the purpose of maintaining control and political alignment.[48], The degree to which military structures have been dissolved: According to some observers, the TPLFs military structures were not really disbanded after 1991, but rather they replaced the army of the junta to be reincarnated as the Ethiopian National Defence Force (ENDF).[49] A complex process of disarmament, demobilization and reintegration followed, a feat that had to be repeated once more after the 1999 war with Eritrea. Attending the same university Lemma would also go on to get his master's degree . In several high-profile cases, authorities appealed or seemed to ignore bail orders, requested more time to investigate, or transferred suspects between police authorities, some with overlapping jurisdictions, without informing relatives or counsel. Dynamics of political power in Ethiopia: past and present. On November 4, Abiy ordered the military to take action against the ruling party in Tigray, in retaliation for what he described as an attack by Tigray regional forces on a federal military base, triggering significant clashes between regional and federal forces. However, taking 1991 as a starting point risks putting too much emphasis on contemporary factors that influence Ethiopias political settlement, and too little on historical ones, producing an unbalanced understanding of its evolution. 3. C Functioning of Government C1 0-4 pts As the former seek to maintain the status quo, the latter push for change.[63]. National elections are now scheduled for June 2021 and given their significance, further outbreaks of violence are to be expected throughout the country. The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia or "Ethiopia" for short, is a sovereign landlocked country located at the north-eastern part of Africa (the horn of Africa), covering a total land area of about 1,100,000 squared kilometers. This event heralded a period of 25 years of unbroken EPRDF rule. While most African societies (including, of course, several peoples subsequently incorporated into Ethiopia) were governed through political systems based on a mythology of descent from a common ancestor (and describable, despite the On June 30, following Hachalus killing, authorities imposed a nationwide three-week internet shutdown. Simplice Asongu (PhD) eshetu shifaw. Examples in the case of Ethiopia include the suppression of the Oromo Liberation Front, the Ogaden National Liberation Front[37] and the Islamic Front for the Liberation of Oromia, which has played a role in cutting off alternative conflict-resolution channels such as peace talks.[38] The third effect, noted by a number of interviewees, is that the war on terror has increased the feeling of marginalization among some groups within Ethiopias Muslim community. The three colors shall be set horizontally in equal dimension. Somalia sought to annex Ethiopias Somali Regional State in pursuit of the Greater Somalia notion. The lowlands consist of the present-day nations of Somali, Afar, Benishangul-Gumuz and Gambela, as well as parts of the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples and Oromia. Indeed, a more appropriate historical marker is the reign of Menelik II (18891913) as it was under his rule that the Ethiopian empire was consolidated administratively and became a lasting political fixture of modern East Africa after the defeat of Italian colonial forces at the battle of Adowa (1896). Since 4 November 2020, a devastating armed conflict has been raging in northern Ethiopia. For illustrations of these different aspects of Ethiopias economic management: see: Verhoeven, H., Africas Next Hegemon: Behind Ethiopias Power Plays. The comments were made on Nov. 17 . Past and present of political power inEthiopia, Dynamics of political power in Ethiopia: past and present, Factors influencing the evolution of Ethiopias political settlement, A legacy of centralization, control and coercion continues to influence styles of rule and administrative approaches, The partial transition of the TPLF/EPRDF from movement to political party creates strong leadership structures that rest partly on internal control and a lack of external transparency, A legacy of exclusionary rule with ethnic undertones limits broader distribution of power and risks counter-mobilization(s), The expectation that TPLF/EPRDF rule will continue perpetuates a single-party monopoly, The volatility and insecurity of the region requires and perpetuates securitized approaches to (political) conflict, Political power and economic interests are fused and harnessed to a national strategy of state-led economic development. While the Ethiopian empire of the past was dominated by Amharans, the contemporary Ethiopian federal state has been dominated by Tigrayans for most of the time.[24] The origins of rule by the Amharan-Tigrayan imperial core can be understood through the power dynamics of the growth of the empire. 0000007671 00000 n For more than a decade before 2016, GDP grew at a rate between 8% and 11% annually - one of the fastest growing states among the 188 IMF member countries. In September, authorities charged prominent opposition figures Jawar Mohammed, Bekele Gerba, and Eskinder Nega under the criminal code and under the newly enacted terrorism law for their suspected involvement in the unrest. This branding has happened mainly through associating such groups with the transnationalism, radicalism and extreme violence of Al-Qaedas jihad, which was the central theme of the war on terror. 0000005205 00000 n 6%). 0000015731 00000 n At first, the change seemed to hold great promise, but fissures have grown, partly between and among the country's numerous ethnic groups. Fundamental political reforms are underway in Ethiopia, but as the new Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed and his government work to bring about change in the country, historic ethnic divisions have erupted. 0000020416 00000 n On November 1, after federal forces left the area, unidentified armed groups attacked mainly ethnic Amhara residents in Guliso village in western Oromia, resulting in dozens killed and property damage. Fast forward to 20018, finally came a change inspired by the youth movement against the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) led corrupt regime that propelled Abiy Ahmed into the scene. Escalating tensions and clashes in the Tigray region prompted an urgent international response urging de-escalation and dialogue, including from the UN secretary-general, the German foreign minister, the UN high commissioner for human rights, the AU, and the regional body, the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). Keller, for example, argues that the persistence of strong central policy guidance, limited fiscal decentralization and variable capacity at different levels of the administration have imposed limits on the extent to which the federal model truly empowers its constituent states meaning that power continues to reside in the TPLF/EPRDF-dominated centre. Zelalem Teshome Baye agues that the country's political leaders need to critically re-examine the existing ethnic-based modes of the structure of political representation if further political crises are to be avoided. The U.S. first established diplomatic relations with Ethiopia in 1903. The weekly Northern Ethiopia Situation Report has been discontinued and will be included in this report. Unabated attempt made by aggrieved forces to perpetuate political tensions 2. Afar and Somali communities routinely clashed over border demarcations and access to land and resources, claiming civilian lives on both sides. Latest Ethiopian News ,Videos, Music, Sport, Photos - Borkena HV]lU>,BC6f#TcPv3$ 1vwvHg[3x0h"`b$J`*1F(xxwVd{w @`Y$=IXqA%:-[=%RX{/'RR*:Nf05gfym7v.Y~}#skwV.L\dW;?kZ:4Q=`myd/'nosj`Jt{Cy!uU0}. 15. Currently, Ethiopia is facing multidimensional and intersectional crises of geo-political, security, and socio-economic characteristics. Fighting since January reportedly resulted in 35,5000 displacedhalf of the conflict-induced displacements recorded in the country between January and June 2020. The UN called for a transparent and independent investigation into the singers death, while the AU called for an independent investigation into the events, underscoring growing global concerns over Ethiopias human rights situation. 0000021484 00000 n This growth was driven by government investment in infrastructure, as well as sustained . Ethiopia is one of the least developed countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with nearly 100 million people, of which 80.5% of the rural population is relied on agriculture for their livelihoods.1,2 In the 14 PDF View 1 excerpt COVID-19: Shining the Light on Africa P. Rosenthal, J. Breman, +6 authors D. Bausch Medicine, Geography Reality is more complex than a model of conveniently layered influence, as some of these layers overlap and some connections will be more prominent than others, but it does suggest that a number of historical patterns of co-optation continue to operate. While these may be developmentally oriented and positive for the country, they also reflect and maintain existing structures of power and authority, and can be used for less benign purposes. Attacks by armed groups escalated in August and September, targeting security forces, officials, and residents, including ethnic Amharas, resulting in scores killed, kidnappings, property destruction, and renewed displacement. Especially land acquisition, (non)payment of tax and government procurement have been mentioned. Total public debt had ballooned from $13.7 billion in 2011 to $54.7 billion in 2020, which represents a four-fold increase. Ethiopia - the second most populous country in Africa - is a one-party state with a planned economy. See for example: Vaughan, in: Abbink and Hagmann (2013). It is over three million years old. 0000014513 00000 n 0000007221 00000 n 0000012865 00000 n On the importance of land: Vaughan, S. and K. Tronvoll. It will be argued that three aspects of the nature and style of EPRDF governance have shaped the evolution of Ethiopias political settlement over this period in particular. Ethiopia enjoyed support from international actors and most of its regional neighbors, due to its role as host of the African Union (AU), its contributions to United Nations peacekeeping and regional negotiations and counterterrorism efforts, and migration partnerships with Western countries. The local peasantry was subjected to serfdom and tied to its land by an elaborate mechanism of taxes and services, while local elites were either suppressed or co-opted into the existing feudal Amharan hierarchy, depending on the level of resistance they had offered in the process of their subjugation. 0000024126 00000 n 0000016355 00000 n National elections are now slated to be held sometime in 2021. We cannot fully grasp the current situation without understanding two main contexts that have to be put together in order to have a better understanding: 1. The Ethiopia-Tigray peace agreement is a peace treaty signed between the government of Ethiopia and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) on 2 November 2022, [1] where both parties agreed to a "permanent cessation of hostilities" to end the Tigray War. The EthiopianSomali war of 197778 is a high-profile example of such cross-border claims. Civil Militia: Africas Intractable Security Menace? On the basis of this transition framework it can be observed that the TPLF espoused a clear vision for governance and development in Ethiopia after 1991 while retaining a closed hierarchical culture, firm internal control, and control over key security levers. Ethiopia. 0000010044 00000 n The extent to which a political party structure has been developed, The degree to which military structures have been dissolved, The extent to which decision-making has been internally democratized, The level to which a political/civilian strategy has been developed, Ethiopia: Ethnic Federalism and its Discontents, War and the Politics of Identity in Ethiopia: The Making of Enemies and Allies in the Horn of Africa, The Culture of Power in Contemporary Ethiopian Political Life, The Times Comprehensive Atlas of the World, Identity, Citizenship and Political Conflict in Africa, Reconfiguring Ethiopia: The Politics of Authoritarian Reform, Talking Peace in the Ogaden: The search for an end to conflict in the Somali Regional State in Ethiopia, Fragile peace: State failure, violence and development in fragile regions, Regions and power: The structures of international security, Challenges to Security Sector Reform in the Horn of Africa. Share this via Email The European Union has been trying to boost its relations with Ethiopia. 0000008092 00000 n Some reports and a number of interviews actually suggest increased centralization of power and a growing dominance of Prime Minister Meles Zenawi within the party after its restructuring in 2001, following the resolution of the divergence within the TPLF that had appeared on the conclusion of the EthiopianEritrean war.[51] According to a number of interviewees, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi's dominance appears to have persisted until his death in 2012, after which the TPLFs internal cohesion weakened, with several factions emerging. In southern and western Oromia, government counterinsurgency campaigns against armed rebel groups resulted in serious human rights violations and abuses against local communities committed by all sides. 0000014386 00000 n 0000009592 00000 n In short, the TPLFs military structures and forces were in in a constant state of transition for at least the first decade after the overthrow of the junta. Among these, the steadily worsening public debt situation was identified as one of the most critical issuesand rightly so. 0000123863 00000 n It is remarkable, for example, that Tigray is the only region in Ethiopia that scores well above the national average on the Human Development Index: UNDP (2014). 2.1 Population and economic situation Ethiopia is one of the most populous countries in Africa with a population of 83 million (US Department In short, while there is an ethnic dimension to rule in Ethiopia, it is partial and somewhat diluted through measures that give a larger number of groups a stake in governance. Since the second half of 2019, however, these reforms seem to have stagnated and the country is now witnessing more stringent control of the media, a state of emergency imposed in different parts of the country and the postponement of national elections. The U.S. goods trade surplus with Ethiopia was $863 million in 2018, a 47.4% increase over 2017. Political situation: 14 months of fighting. The overthrow of the junta has been described as an intellectually-led and ideology-driven revolution, and in this light the TPLF can be classified as an integrated insurgent organization, characterized by strong central leadership, unity/cohesion and high levels of local support/compliance among the Tigrayan people.[43] These characteristics made the TPLF a formidable adversary for the military junta which, lacking the sophisticated means necessary for a comprehensive counter-insurgency campaign,[44] actually boosted the TPLFs initial strengths by resorting to indiscriminate counter-population warfare.[45] The TPLFs organizational characteristics also made it a movement/party with strong internal discipline and the ability to retain popular support.[46] Existing research offers a four-point general framework for understanding the transition of the TPLF from liberation movement to political party post-1991:[47], The extent to which a political party structure has been developed: After 1991 the TPLF/EPDRF expanded its already formidable (though all-Tigray) party organization to achieve national scale.
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